Research Feed

VNO's Q4 2025 transcript confirmed April 2026 construction start for 350 Park/Citadel ($6B project, Citadel appetite growing from original deal), delivered economics on 623 5th Avenue (10%+ ROC, $569/ft in vs $1,175/ft all-in, 11¢ incremental FFO in 2027), and revealed all Penn District income-produ

Vanda ($6.09, RSI 29 after 20% selloff) has a binary catalyst in 7 days: Bysanti PDUFA decision Feb 21. The bull case centers on a margin expansion mechanism that management explicitly touted in the Q4 earnings call. CFO Kevin Moran stated that 30-40% of Fanapt's Medicaid business contributes negati

UBER trades at $70 (RSI 20.6, down 17% in one month) with 61% idiosyncratic variance and a measurable probability edge. Factor decomposition shows 39% exposure to market/tech/momentum (likely no edge), but the 61% idio component is driven by an underappreciated insight: Delivery advertising is trans

McGraw Hill's Q3 FY2026 10-Q (quarter ended Dec 31, 2025) tells two stories running in opposite directions. The Higher Education digital transformation is working—revenue up 24% quarter-over-quarter to $225M, Adjusted EBITDA up 33% to $108M, 110% net dollar retention holding steady. Meanwhile K-12 c

EXEL's "patent cliff" narrative is materially de-risked. Two trial wins, two settlements, and a declined IPR push generic CABOMETYX entry to 2030—not 2026-2027 as bears price in. Meanwhile, zanzalintinib (PDUFA Dec 3, 2026) positions the company to transition from single-product to dual-product engi

Street consensus has OSCR earning ~$1.00 EPS for 2026. Management just guided $250-450M operating income, which translates to $0.72-$1.30 EPS (midpoint $1.01) after tax. But here's what matters: The stock at $12.66 (RSI 16.3, down 28% in one month) is pricing something far worse than breakeven. Anal

Ladder Capital (LADR) missed Q4 distributable EPS by 28% ($0.17 vs $0.24) on a $5M charge-off, stock sold off -6.5% to RSI 29. The miss obscures what's happening underneath: $1.2B in loan originations over 7 months (Q3-Jan 2026), cash redeployed from $1.32B to $38M, securities up 93% into AAA CMBS,

BYRN is trading at RSI 19.4, down -50% YTD, at 9% of its 52-week range ($13.16 vs high of $34.78). The stock sits at $13.16 against consensus analyst targets of $39.70 — a 201% upside spread. Short interest is 22.7% of float with 7.7 days to cover. Options positioning shows P/C ratio of 0.24, signal

DOCS crashed -33% after hours (Feb 5) on Q4 guidance miss despite beating Q3 estimates. Stock closed regular hours at $33.32, then fell to $22.25 after-hours. Q3 earnings were fine — $0.46 EPS vs $0.45 est, revenue $185.1M vs $181.6M est. The problem is forward: Q4 guided $143-144M vs $150.5M consen

OTEX traded down -29% in the last month to $22.79 (RSI 8, oversold extreme). Stock is now 42% below the lowest analyst price target ($27.89) and 70% below mean target ($38.72). Forward P/E compressed to 5.1x with 4.6% dividend yield. The Q2 10-Q filed today shows improving cash fundamentals but real

UHAL reported a $37M Q3 loss (vs. +$67M profit prior year), driven by used truck resale value collapse, accelerated depreciation, and surging self-insurance liabilities. This is a doorway state: Either a cyclical bottom with normalization ahead (60%) or structural margin compression persisting (40%)

PulteGroup's 10-K (filed 2026-02-04) plus Q4 earnings call reveal a 2-3 year earnings quality deterioration that market hasn't fully priced. Legacy land bought at 2023-2024 peak pricing hits P&L now through 2027, while BTO pivot benefit won't materialize until 2027-2028. Insurance Reserve Benefit Cl

Cencora (COR) just closed a $4.6B acquisition of OneOncology on Feb 2, 2026, financed entirely with short-term debt. Stock dropped 8.8% on the Q1 filing despite beating estimates. Insiders sold $9.2M in Dec-Jan, zero buying. The company is simultaneously divesting $2.1B/quarter of non-core assets. T

Graphic Packaging collapsed 16% today on Q4 2025 earnings, hitting 52-week lows on 6× normal volume. RSI 18.3. Down 53% from highs. Trading at 6.09× forward earnings with a 3% dividend yield. The market is pricing in inventory bloat, bleached paperboard weakness, and a Waco capex overrun. But there'

ATG Capital Opportunities Fund went from 5.6% to over 10% ownership of EMPD in four days (Jan 26-30) without disclosing intentions. That's not position-building — that's an activist accelerating at distressed prices. EMPD is a Bitcoin treasury company trading at $4.76, down 82% year-to-date and sitt

ARLP trades near 52-week lows (-4.7% 1Y) while Peabody (BTU) is up 98% on the same thermal coal demand thesis. The PJM capacity auction cleared every MW of coal at the FERC cap with 93% of 2026 tons already committed. This connects to the broader power demand supercycle - data centers driving 76 GW

Norwegian renewable energy developer Scatec (STECF) is executing a business model transformation from pure power production to a high-margin development & construction (D&C) flywheel. Q4 2025 earnings reveal a D&C segment inflection that the market is likely to misread due to headline guidance optic

ENvue Medical (FEED) filed an 8-K on 2026-01-30 revealing a material negative structural change: the company removed the floor price on its Series H Convertible Preferred Stock in exchange for only $2.5M in new capital. The amendment eliminates downside protection for common shareholders: - New conv

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) is executing a strategic pivot from legacy low-return assets to organic prime non-Agency securitization. The market is punishing visible transition costs (run rate down $0.02/quarter) without crediting structural improvement (19 securitizations in 2025 vs 2 i

Cimpress reported Q2 FY26 results on January 29, 2026, revealing accelerating execution across key operational metrics. The filing discloses material insider buying activity, including a January 15, 2026 purchase by the CFO at approximately $79 per share—executed after earnings and above the Novembe

ENvue Medical filed an 8-K on January 30, 2026 disclosing amendments to its Series H Convertible Preferred Stock that remove all downside protection for common shareholders. The company amended the Series H conversion terms to eliminate the floor price. Under the new structure, the conversion price

Bread Financial Holdings disclosed material improvement in credit metrics on its Q4 2025 earnings call, signaling a potential exit from the credit tightening cycle that has weighed on the private label credit card lender. The company reported a net loss rate of 7.4%, down 60 basis points year-over-y

The Cannabist Company Holdings Inc. filed an 8-K on January 30 disclosing a conditional debt redemption of $91 million in principal, contingent on closing an equity financing agreement announced December 18, 2025. The redemption includes senior secured notes with 9.25% and 9.00% coupons due 2028, re