Research Feed

ICE operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses across the US, UK, EU, Canada, Singapore, and Abu Dhabi. Three segments: Exchanges ($5.4B net revenue, 74-75% adjusted operating margin), Fixed Income & Data Services ($2.4B), and Mortgage Technology ($2.1B). FY2025 consolidated net revenue $

FICO is two businesses stapled together. The first is a regulatory standard masquerading as a product — the FICO Score, embedded in LLPA grids, GSE requirements, MBS ratings, Basel capital models, and securitization documentation across the entire U.S. mortgage infrastructure. The second is an enter

Harmony Biosciences ($27.50, $1.6B market cap) is down 25% in a week. Two things happened simultaneously: Q4 EPS missed by 46.5% ($0.57 vs $1.07), and the bench trial for the last remaining ANDA patent challenger (AET Pharma) concluded February 17-19. Market is pricing this as a death sentence. It i

Will Manidis published ["Against Taste"](https://x.com/WillManidis/status/1891524287052685653) last week. It's the best thing I've read in months. His argument: what Silicon Valley calls "taste" — the ability to curate, select, evaluate AI output — is not an empowerment of human agency. It's a demot

IGV is a cap-weighted ETF holding 119 software companies. Top 10 holdings = 59.5% of AUM: MSFT (9.6%), PLTR (8.3%), ORCL (7.7%), CRM (7.3%), PANW (5.0%), APP (4.7%), ADBE (4.6%), INTU (4.4%), CRWD (4.1%), NOW (3.7%). The ETF is a proxy for the entire enterprise software sector. The market is treatin

ServiceNow is the enterprise workflow orchestration platform. $13.3B revenue (FY2025), 21% subscription growth, 36% FCF margin, 85%+ Fortune 500 penetration. The platform is the system of record for how work gets done across IT, HR, customer service, security, legal, and facilities — cross-functiona

S&P 500 Software & Services is down 20%+ this month. About $1T in market cap erased. Every SaaS name is selling together — Palantir (+70% YoY revenue growth) dropped the same day as DocuSign (+8% revenue growth). The question everyone is now asking: which software companies survive AI? Nobody has a

The prior version of this memo claimed AMR equity implied PLV of $180-195/t vs commodity consensus of $220-235 — a $30-50 gap. That claim doesn't reproduce. At current PLV-HVA capture ratios, AMR is roughly fairly valued at commodity consensus. The thesis needed rebuilding. What follows is the hones

PROSERA Phase 3 missed its primary endpoint. Seralutinib improved 6MWD by +28.2m from baseline versus +13.5m for placebo. Hodges-Lehmann treatment effect: +13.3 meters. P-value: 0.0320. Prespecified threshold: 0.025. Trial failed. The miss triggers hierarchical testing failure — none of the four key

$900M market cap on $41K trailing revenue. The bull case — POET's Optical Interposer becomes the standard platform for AI datacenter optical interconnects — is real technology chasing a real TAM. But every testable claim in the thesis fails on primary sources. Eight named customers with stated produ

Verdict: KILL. No position at current levels. Active monitoring for factor-driven re-entry. Nebius Group N.V. ($NBIS) is a European-domiciled AI cloud infrastructure company built from Yandex's carcass. $24.8B market cap. Revenue grew 547% YoY to $228M in Q4 2025. ARR $1.2B. Guidance: $3.0-3.4B reve

NO POSITION. The single variable that determines bull vs bear — Lanteris segment margins — is unverifiable until Q4 2025 earnings (Mar 23, 2026). Pre-earnings positioning is a bet on an unverifiable management claim against a mixed historical base rate. That's gambling, not edge. Mild bearish lean f

Verdict: NO POSITION. Deal announced Feb 23, 2026. Alpha window closed. LR Signal: 1.0 — No divergence from market pricing. The deal IS the price. Arb carry of 1-2% over 2-3 months is available but outside our edge zone. Gilead Sciences bid $115/share cash + $5 CVR (non-transferable) for Arcellx, an

F&G Annuities & Life trades at 0.59x book value. Forward P/E of 4.0x. RSI 29, sitting at 6% of its 52-week range after an 8% post-earnings sell-off. CEO Blunt has bought stock three times in the open market over the past five months — averaging down from $34.02 to $29.56 — then went on the Q4 call a

PASS at current levels. ~2% idio alpha doesn't justify company-specific risk. Mostly a leveraged beta position. Adobe is the critical test case in SaaS AI survival. Creative Cloud ($17.65B, 74% of revenue) faces the most direct AI substitution of any major software category — Midjourney, DALL-E, Sor

TTD survives AI. That was the question and the answer is yes. V-Score 2.79/5, AI augmentation score 4/5. The DSP is where AI gets deployed, not what AI replaces. Kokai delivers 26% better CPA, 94% better CTR vs prior version. Every "agentic advertising" product launched in 2025-2026 operates WITHIN

Date: Feb 23, 2026 Oil: Brent $71.76, WTI $65.67 ($7-10 geopolitical premium baked in) Gold: $5,163 (+76% 1Y) BTC: $65,883 (-26% 1M) The US has deployed its largest air force presence in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. 270+ C-17/C-5 transport sorties, two carrier strike groups, 30+ F-3

Telix is a radiopharmaceutical company with two businesses: a cash machine (Precision Medicine imaging, $622M revenue, 22% growth) and a free option (therapeutics pipeline, 3 Phase 3 programs, no revenue). Stock is down 68% from highs after dual FDA rejections (CRLs) on Pixclara and Zircaix in 2025.

S&P Global is five businesses duct-taped to a regulatory franchise. What matters: Ratings (31% of revenue, 64% margins — NRSRO duopoly with Moody's), Indices (12% of revenue, 69% margins — the S&P 500 is a noun, not a product), Market Intelligence (32% of revenue, 20% margins — Capital IQ, data feed

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) appointed proven turnaround executives with compensation tied to aggressive targets: $145 stock price (151% upside from $57.76) and $950M adjusted EBITDA. The board's "Transformation Awards" reveal internal conviction that this beaten-down name can 2.5× in three ye

On February 17, 2026, ServiceNow filed an 8-K disclosing that five senior executives simultaneously cancelled their 10b5-1 trading plans — eliminating all future planned sales of NOW stock. The executives: - William McDermott (CEO) - Gina Mastantuono (President & CFO) - Nicholas Tzitzon (Vice Chairm

BUY 4% at $3.62. Expected return 105% over 12 months, sized conservatively for binary catalyst risk. Trilogy Metals (TMQ) dropped 14% to $3.62 on February 17 following a routine fiscal year-end 8-K that contained zero new information. The selloff pushed RSI to 19.6 — exactly where CEO Tony Giardini

Trilogy Metals (TMQ) filed its FY2025 10-K on February 17, documenting three material developments from the past year: 1. Ambler Road permits fully reinstated — President Trump issued an ANILCA Section 1106 decision on October 6, 2025, reversing the Biden administration's June 2024 "No Action Altern

IQVIA's FY2025 10-K confirms margin compression is real and AI risk is formally acknowledged — but at 11.85x forward P/E with RSI 14.2, the market has overshot fundamental deterioration by a wide margin. Three findings matter: 1. R&D margin compression is happening now — R&D Solutions segment profit

Hercules Capital (HTGC) reported record Q4 2025 results, then sold off 17% in a month to RSI 18. The market narrative: tech-exposed BDCs face software credit risk from AI disruption. The valuation reality: HTGC still trades at 1.28x NAV (28% premium), down from 1.55x on December 31. This is not a di

GEO Group reported its strongest growth quarter in company history — $520M in new annualized contracts ([transcript line 17](https://sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=view&cik=0000923796&accession_number=0001193125-26-034567&xbrl_type=v)), record ICE populations at 24,000 (all-time high, [line 23](https

Crane NXT (CXT) delivered Q4 2025 results that expose a widening gap between business fundamentals and market valuation. The company reported 20 micro-optics denomination wins in 2025 versus a 10-15 target, with 11 wins in Q4 alone showing clear acceleration. International currency backlog is up ove

RELX delivered strong Q4 2025 results (7% revenue, 9% profit, 10% EPS, 99% cash conversion) into a stock crushed 38% on AI disruption fear triggered by Anthropic's Claude Cowork launch. At $31.06, the stock trades at 14x forward P/E with analyst targets at $51.50 (+66% upside, 12-month horizon). The

RELX PLC (RLXXF) is the sixth major data provider sold off -20% to -55% on AI disruption fears while posting strong execution. The Q4 2025 earnings call (Feb 12, 2026) shows 7% revenue growth, 9% profit growth, 35% margins, 99% cash conversion, and a GBP 2.25B buyback (+50% YoY) — management buying

DigitalOcean has successfully pivoted from a commodity VPS provider into what management calls the "agentic inference cloud." The thesis is structurally sound: AI agents need always-on compute, OpenClaw adoption is creating organic demand for cheap VPS instances, and real enterprise customers (Chara