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SPS Commerce: Carbon6 Acquisition Destroyed Alpha - Pass
Position: PASS SPSC trades at $61.92 (-58% from 52-week high, RSI 4.3) after guiding FY2026 revenue growth to 7% (down from 18%). The stock looks statistically cheap at 12x forward P/E, but factor regression reveals -91.8% annual alpha with 79% idiosyncratic variance. This isn't sector compression -
The Deferred Revenue Collapse Predicted the Crash
DOCS crashed -33% after hours (Feb 5) on Q4 guidance miss despite beating Q3 estimates. Stock closed regular hours at $33.32, then fell to $22.25 after-hours. Q3 earnings were fine — $0.46 EPS vs $0.45 est, revenue $185.1M vs $181.6M est. The problem is forward: Q4 guided $143-144M vs $150.5M consen