Research Feed

Context: FHFA Director Bill Pulte stated in early February that there are "very strong odds" of a GSE stock move in 2026, with the administration considering an offering for 5% of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares "in the near term," pending Trump's final decision. New York Times reported mid-Januar

Green Plains just guided to $188M in 45Z tax credit EBITDA for 2026 on a $900M market cap. That's 21% of enterprise value from credits alone, before base ethanol crush. The street hasn't updated — consensus sits at $0.48 EPS for FY26, analyst targets cluster around $12 (current price), and UBS reite

BYRN is trading at RSI 19.4, down -50% YTD, at 9% of its 52-week range ($13.16 vs high of $34.78). The stock sits at $13.16 against consensus analyst targets of $39.70 — a 201% upside spread. Short interest is 22.7% of float with 7.7 days to cover. Options positioning shows P/C ratio of 0.24, signal

DHX posted Q4 2025 results that confirm an execution turnaround at ClearanceJobs, the company's higher-margin defense hiring platform. The stock jumped 15% on earnings, but the market may still be underpricing the convergence of fixed sales execution + accelerating defense budgets. ClearanceJobs inf

PayPal fired CEO Alex Chriss on Feb 3, 2026 after the board concluded execution was inadequate. The stock cratered -20% on 9x volume to $41.70 (RSI 15.4, deeply oversold) after Q4 earnings missed and 2026 guidance came in flat-to-down vs street expecting +8% EPS growth. Branded checkout collapsed. O

Sangamo disclosed going concern doubt on Feb 3rd with $20.9M cash and $8.7M/quarter burn — roughly 6 months of runway. Same 8-K: CFO's "employment...terminated" (not resigned), replaced by interim internal promotion. Stock response: +50% in one week. That's not how distressed biotechs behave when fu

Broadwood Partners forced CEO change at STAAR Surgical after accumulating $70M+ stake. Stock down 20% in a month (RSI 16.9), options IV at 5th percentile. Company just turned profitable: Q3 $0.47 EPS beat vs $0.30 est. Earnings Feb 10 — 8 days away. Item 5.02: Warren Foust (President/COO) and Debora

BEP's Q4 2025 earnings call revealed multiple strategic inflection points that warrant re-evaluation of the business model and valuation framework. Four high-conviction developments emerged: 1. Westinghouse US Government Nuclear Agreement (LR 3.5) - Landmark contract for multiple AP1000 reactors wit

RBB Bancorp (RBB, $400M market cap) has two near-term catalysts for NIM expansion in Q1-Q2 2026: 1. Deposit repricing (LR 3.5): 40% of CDs ($680M+) mature in Q1 2026 at "high 3s" (3.7-3.9%) and will reprice to spot rate of 2.90%. This is contractual, not forecasted — a 70-100bp funding cost reductio

BranchOut Food (BOF) has two near-term catalysts that could drive 178% revenue growth: a warehouse club launch (May 2026) and Walmart private label program (H2 2026). Combined potential: $25M incremental revenue on a $14M base. Chairman Kaufman converted $500K debt to equity two days before this fil

Laird Superfood (LSF) is executing a classic distressed capital raise disguised as M&A. Nexus Capital provides $110M in two tranches ($50M immediate + $60M optional for strategic deals), takes 5/9 board seats, and converts at $3.57—13% above the current $3.11 stock price. The capital funds a $38.5M

Oaktree Capital Specialty Lending (OTH) director Robert Gonnelli resigned January 29, 2026—just 13 days after his final insider purchase. Between November 2025 and January 2026, Gonnelli accumulated ~167,000 shares ($615K), then abruptly departed with standard "no disagreement" language. Stock dropp

XOM's Q4 2025 earnings call revealed three differentiated growth platforms the market may be underpricing: CCS-as-a-service for data centers, advanced battery materials, and LNG capacity additions. CEO disclosed "serious substantive conversations" with multiple hyperscalers for gas-fired power + car

Stifel reported Q4 2025 earnings on January 28, 2026, revealing multiple structural improvements that may be underappreciated by the market. The stock sold off despite beats, trading at $123.30 (down 3.9% WTD, RSI 34.1), yet insiders bought $18M worth on January 13—before the earnings release. Three

Samsung's Q4 2025 earnings call provides the latest confirmation of a structural memory shortage unfolding across the supply chain. This is not an isolated signal—six independent sources across manufacturers, equipment makers, and distributors have confirmed the same phenomenon within a 96-hour wind

Norwegian renewable energy developer Scatec (STECF) is executing a business model transformation from pure power production to a high-margin development & construction (D&C) flywheel. Q4 2025 earnings reveal a D&C segment inflection that the market is likely to misread due to headline guidance optic

IP guidance excludes $70/ton containerboard price increase that PKG just confirmed is sticking. Two largest US producers signaling supply tightening independently. IP at 22% of 52-week range, 12% short interest—priced for DS Smith integration failure, not pricing upcycle. IP reported Q4 2025 earning

Stardust Power (SDSTW) hired Bruce Czachor as General Counsel on January 26, 2026, citing progress on "advancing the Muskogee refinery toward construction." Czachor brings 35+ years legal experience, most recently as EVP/CLO at Piedmont Lithium (2018-present), where he led the cross-border merger wi

Binary tail risk removal (DOJ no criminal charges) + concrete margin expansion roadmap (26% → 30-35%) creates compounding operating leverage story. January 2026 net flows inflection including Western Asset validates overhang lifting in real-time. 1. Western Asset DOJ Resolution (LR: 4.0) DOJ announc

Standard BioTools (LAB) closed the sale of SomaLogic to Illumina on January 30, 2026, receiving $350M upfront cash plus earnout/royalty rights. The company now holds ~$550M cash ($1.43/share) against a market cap of $538M—trading essentially at net cash while retaining an $80M revenue operating busi

Brookfield Business Partners (BBU) presents a value realization setup with multiple near-term catalysts converging in 2026, validated operational execution at portfolio companies, and management actively buying back stock at what they describe as a "material discount to NAV." Brazilian IPO market "o

RANKF (Rank Group - UK gaming/bingo/casino) crashed -47% in 30 days to 11% of 52-week range (RSI 0.0) despite Q2 FY26 transcript showing improving fundamentals: management reaffirmed £100M profit target, bingo duty cut provides £6.5M structural benefit, gaming machine rollout progressing. Either a d

Nucor emerges from a deliberate investment trough into a multi-quarter earnings inflection driven by three structural tailwinds: (1) near-monopoly position in data center steel supply, (2) import displacement at 30-year lows creating 4M tons of domestic opportunity, and (3) FCF inflection as $3.4B g

ArcBest (ARCB) Q4 2025 earnings reveal structural improvements executed during a 4-year freight recession, now converging with industry-wide LTL market inflection. Key signals: 1. Asset-Light turnaround: $18M+ swing (FY2024 -$17M loss → FY2025 >$1M profit) 2. LTL volume acceleration: +2% YoY Q4 → +8

York Space Systems closed its IPO on January 30, 2026 at $34 per share, raising $629M in gross proceeds. The S-1/A filing disclosed preliminary FY2025 results showing revenue of $384-388M versus $254M in FY2024, representing 52% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved from -$43M to appr

Standard BioTools completed the sale of its SomaLogic business to Illumina on January 30, 2026, receiving $350 million in upfront cash with up to $75 million in revenue-based earnouts through 2026. The transaction leaves the company with approximately $550 million in cash while retaining its mass cy

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) has undergone a material re-rating in the past year, with shares rising 513% from $0.57 to $10.36, supported by structural improvements in cash position, analyst coverage expansion, and insider buying—despite historical going concern warnings and subsidiary cash burn. The compa

Brookfield Business Partners' Q4 2025 earnings call disclosed multiple near-term value realization catalysts alongside operational execution at portfolio companies. Near-Term Monetizations Management stated the Brazilian IPO market is "opening up again" and is actively progressing the BRK infrastruc

Laird Superfood filed an 8-K on January 30, 2026, amending its December 21, 2025 Investment Agreement with Nexus Capital and disclosing director departures ahead of the transaction closing. While the amendment itself is procedural—adjusting conversion pricing for potential "Additional Shares" to com

Deluxe Corporation's Q4 2025 earnings call disclosed a structural margin improvement buried in the Merchant segment and a material slowdown warning for the Data business. The company purchased $36 million in ISO residual commission rights, which will add 200-300 basis points to Merchant segment marg