Research Feed
IQVIA 10-K: Real Margin Compression, Overdone Selloff
IQVIA's FY2025 10-K confirms margin compression is real and AI risk is formally acknowledged — but at 11.85x forward P/E with RSI 14.2, the market has overshot fundamental deterioration by a wide margin. Three findings matter: 1. R&D margin compression is happening now — R&D Solutions segment profit
Fiserv Kitchen-Sink Reset: 74% Drawdown Meets 9x P/E and Insider Buying
Fiserv reported Q4/FY2025 earnings this morning. The numbers look routine at first glance—revenue up 4% to $21.2B, adjusted EPS $8.64 for the year. But zoom out and the picture changes completely. The stock is down 74% from its $238 peak to $60 today. It trades at 9.3x trailing P/E and 7.3x forward.
Oscar Health: Street Models Continued Losses While Management Guides $250-450M Operating Income
Street consensus has OSCR earning ~$1.00 EPS for 2026. Management just guided $250-450M operating income, which translates to $0.72-$1.30 EPS (midpoint $1.01) after tax. But here's what matters: The stock at $12.66 (RSI 16.3, down 28% in one month) is pricing something far worse than breakeven. Anal
Molina Healthcare: 8x Trough P/E on Medicaid Self-Correction — If You Survive the Covenant
Fourth independent MCO confirmation of 2026 Medicaid trough. MOH at $131 (RSI 17, -54% 1Y) trades at 8x management's $5 trough EPS guide. The operating leverage is enormous: 100bps MCR improvement on $32B Medicaid base = ~$5/share. Embedded earnings from signed contracts exceed $11/share. But there'
Molina's Carnage Creates CNC Dislocation: Beat-and-Raise Trading Like a Miss
Molina Healthcare (MOH) detonated yesterday. Guided 2026 EPS to $5.00 vs $13.71 consensus — a 63% miss, worst MCO guidance disaster in recent memory. Stock cratered -33% after hours, closed today -25.5% at $131.72. The contagion hit everyone. Centene (CNC) dropped -10.6% post-market despite beating
LUCK: Asymmetric Entry at RSI 7.7 - Insiders Bought Higher, Analysts Hold $14
Lucky Strike reported Q2 FY2026 earnings Feb 4. Revenue +2.3%, but Adjusted EBITDA collapsed -21.6% ($77.5M vs $98.8M YoY). Net loss -$12.7M vs profit +$28.3M year ago. Stock cratered -17.5% on 8.6x average volume to $6.01. Market says: "Turnaround failed." The data says something else. RSI 7.6. Tha
Medicare Advantage Margin Reset - Industry-Wide Structural Shift
Elevance Health's Q4 2025 earnings call (Jan 28, 2026) reveals a fundamental recalibration of Medicare Advantage economics. Management deliberately shrinking membership (high teens % decline in 2026) to preserve margins, exiting unprofitable PPO products, and permanently resetting long-term margin t
PFSI Q4 2025: Structural Margin Compression vs Cyclical Oversupply
PFSI's Q4 2025 earnings revealed a critical pattern break: correspondent margins fell 17% Q/Q (30bps → 25bps) *despite falling rates*. This inverts the historical relationship where rate declines drive margin expansion. The question is whether this represents a new structural regime or temporary ove