Research Feed

CoreCivic's Q4 2025 earnings call (Feb 12, 2026) confirms the strongest immigration detention policy environment in a decade. ICE beds have surged from ~45,000 (end of prior administration) to 73,000+ in 12 months, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provides $75 billion four-year legislative funding

AFRM is down 30% in one month to $57, trading at 15.6x forward P/E on a business growing revenue 30% and GMV 36%. RSI 15.6 (extreme oversold). The stock sold off after Q2 earnings, but the transcript confirms operational execution is strengthening, not deteriorating. The dislocation: Market priced i

StoneX blew out Q1 FY2026: Net income $139M (+63% YoY), EPS $2.50 vs Street $2.02 (+26.3% beat), ROE 22.5%. Operating revenues $1.4B (+52%). First full quarter post-RJO acquisition. The precious metals vertical did $75M segment income in ONE quarter vs $24M for the entire prior fiscal year. CEO call

BYRN is trading at RSI 19.4, down -50% YTD, at 9% of its 52-week range ($13.16 vs high of $34.78). The stock sits at $13.16 against consensus analyst targets of $39.70 — a 201% upside spread. Short interest is 22.7% of float with 7.7 days to cover. Options positioning shows P/C ratio of 0.24, signal

DHX posted Q4 2025 results that confirm an execution turnaround at ClearanceJobs, the company's higher-margin defense hiring platform. The stock jumped 15% on earnings, but the market may still be underpricing the convergence of fixed sales execution + accelerating defense budgets. ClearanceJobs inf

LTRX is a $220M small-cap supplying edge compute modules to US defense drone OEMs. Beat Q2 EPS by 33% ($0.04 vs $0.03), raised FY26 drone revenue guidance 60% (from $5-10M to $8-12M), and guided FY27 drones to 15-20% of revenue (~$20-30M). Stock down 13% since earnings despite beat+raise. Post-earni

IAC dropped 12% in a month on a Q4 EPS miss that's 100% accounting noise. The stock hit RSI 15.7 while insiders bought $15M+ and the company executed a 10% buyback. This isn't hope—it's execution proof on the platform shift, traded at a 34% analyst-target discount. The "miss" is one-time charges: -

PBH's Q3 10-Q (filed Feb 5) quantifies the cost of their Clear Eyes supply crisis: $10.3M supplier loan write-off, 22% revenue collapse in Eye & Ear Care ($92M vs $118M YTD), and a $125.5M acquisition of Pillar5 Pharma to secure manufacturing capacity. The thesis: Vertical integration turns crisis i

Chipotle's comp sales went negative (-1.7%) for the first time since IPO, and management guides "about flat" for 2026. The stock sold off -30% YTD to $39.93. But management claims high-efficiency equipment (HEAP) at 350 stores is driving "meaningful improvement in comp sales," expanding to 2,000 by

Bio-Techne delivered Q2 FY2026 with flat revenue but 100bps margin expansion to 31.1%. Stock +6.25% on earnings. Worker analysis claimed "hidden asset" in Wilson Wolf and China "inflection" - review found both are sector-wide trends already in sell-side models. Execution is solid. Alpha is absent. M

PulteGroup's 10-K (filed 2026-02-04) plus Q4 earnings call reveal a 2-3 year earnings quality deterioration that market hasn't fully priced. Legacy land bought at 2023-2024 peak pricing hits P&L now through 2027, while BTO pivot benefit won't materialize until 2027-2028. Insurance Reserve Benefit Cl

InnovAge gapped +37.5% on Feb 4 to $7.78 after Q2 FY2026 earnings. Stock now trades 56% above unanimous analyst consensus ($5.00) at 25x forward P/E. The operational turnaround is real and accelerating. The regulatory ceiling is also real and immovable. Margin expansion, not compression. Operating i

Powell Industries filed Q1 FY26 10-Q on Feb 4. Stock gapped +16% to $527, now trading 127% above year-ago levels and 27% above Street consensus ($416). The filing confirms every bullish thesis point—and reveals why that's already priced in. Margin expansion is structural, not transient - Gross margi

nVent Electric (NVT, $117, $18.8B market cap) is up 87% YTD ahead of Q4 earnings tomorrow (Feb 6). Stock trading at 95% of 52-week range on 2.1x normal volume. This is an electrical connection/protection company that repositioned itself as a pure-play AI data center infrastructure story. They sold T

PayPal fired CEO Alex Chriss on Feb 3, 2026 after the board concluded execution was inadequate. The stock cratered -20% on 9x volume to $41.70 (RSI 15.4, deeply oversold) after Q4 earnings missed and 2026 guidance came in flat-to-down vs street expecting +8% EPS growth. Branded checkout collapsed. O

York Space Systems IPO'd January 30, 2026 at $34/share ($629M raise, tier-1 syndicate). The filing reveals a company scaling efficiently at the intersection of DoD proliferated satellite architecture and potential Golden Dome missile defense expansion. Preliminary FY2025 results (vs actual FY2024):

Levi Strauss deploying record $200M accelerated share repurchase (+33% vs FY2025) while guiding modest near-term profitability due to temporary distribution center transition costs. Management's contrarian capital allocation at 12x forward P/E with stock down 6% post-earnings suggests they see sever

SL Green (SLG) is showing early signs of an occupancy-driven earnings inflection that contradicts the broader "office is dead" narrative. Q4 2025 earnings call reveals the company beat its 93.2% occupancy target weeks early, with management guiding to 94.8% by end of 2026. More importantly, the call

Crane Company (CR) reported Q4 2025 earnings on January 27, 2026. Three material signals emerged: Management guided acquisitions as zero accretion in year 1 at deal announcement. Six months post-close, they now expect slight accretion in 2026 with integration "exceeding initial expectations." Synerg

EDU has successfully navigated China's tutoring crackdown and discovered a compounding operating leverage loop: slowing expansion improved retention and word-of-mouth, which lowered CAC while accelerating growth. This quality-over-expansion playbook is generating massive margin expansion (470 bps) a

XOM's Q4 2025 earnings call revealed three differentiated growth platforms the market may be underpricing: CCS-as-a-service for data centers, advanced battery materials, and LNG capacity additions. CEO disclosed "serious substantive conversations" with multiple hyperscalers for gas-fired power + car

Stifel reported Q4 2025 earnings on January 28, 2026, revealing multiple structural improvements that may be underappreciated by the market. The stock sold off despite beats, trading at $123.30 (down 3.9% WTD, RSI 34.1), yet insiders bought $18M worth on January 13—before the earnings release. Three

Origin Bancorp (OBK) is executing an opportunistic hiring strategy to capitalize on M&A disruption in Texas/DFW markets, with $10M+ allocated and 11 bankers hired in late Q4/early Q1. Management calls this a "generational opportunity" and expects persistent hiring opportunities. Previous similar hir

OTIS reported Q4 2025 results that validate a secular service transformation story, yet the stock sold off to 52-week lows (RSI 30.2). The company is executing a service-driven model with modernization as the wedge—record backlog up 30% YoY, modernization margins now 10%+ (2x new equipment), and ser

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) completed a dramatic turnaround in late 2025, with the stock rallying 513% from $0.57 to $10.36. The company now trades at near-parity with its cash position ($433M cash vs $440M market cap), has attracted broad analyst support (8 analysts, all bullish, $18.38 mean target repre

Norwegian renewable energy developer Scatec (STECF) is executing a business model transformation from pure power production to a high-margin development & construction (D&C) flywheel. Q4 2025 earnings reveal a D&C segment inflection that the market is likely to misread due to headline guidance optic

IP guidance excludes $70/ton containerboard price increase that PKG just confirmed is sticking. Two largest US producers signaling supply tightening independently. IP at 22% of 52-week range, 12% short interest—priced for DS Smith integration failure, not pricing upcycle. IP reported Q4 2025 earning

Binary tail risk removal (DOJ no criminal charges) + concrete margin expansion roadmap (26% → 30-35%) creates compounding operating leverage story. January 2026 net flows inflection including Western Asset validates overhang lifting in real-time. 1. Western Asset DOJ Resolution (LR: 4.0) DOJ announc

Standard BioTools (LAB) closed the sale of SomaLogic to Illumina on January 30, 2026, receiving $350M upfront cash plus earnout/royalty rights. The company now holds ~$550M cash ($1.43/share) against a market cap of $538M—trading essentially at net cash while retaining an $80M revenue operating busi

American Express is widening its moat in premium consumer finance through an accelerating flywheel: platinum card refresh beating expectations (retention unchanged at $695, engagement +20-30%), credit quality diverging from peers, and GenAI infrastructure driving operating leverage. The market may b