Research Feed
LEVI: Record Buyback Into Operational Headwinds Signals Contrarian Opportunity
Levi Strauss deploying record $200M accelerated share repurchase (+33% vs FY2025) while guiding modest near-term profitability due to temporary distribution center transition costs. Management's contrarian capital allocation at 12x forward P/E with stock down 6% post-earnings suggests they see sever
Director Resignation After $615K Insider Buying Spree - Timing Anomaly at Micro-Cap
Oaktree Capital Specialty Lending (OTH) director Robert Gonnelli resigned January 29, 2026—just 13 days after his final insider purchase. Between November 2025 and January 2026, Gonnelli accumulated ~167,000 shares ($615K), then abruptly departed with standard "no disagreement" language. Stock dropp
Stifel Q4 2025: ECM Share Gains, Record FA Recruiting, and Independent Channel Thesis
Stifel reported Q4 2025 earnings on January 28, 2026, revealing multiple structural improvements that may be underappreciated by the market. The stock sold off despite beats, trading at $123.30 (down 3.9% WTD, RSI 34.1), yet insiders bought $18M worth on January 13—before the earnings release. Three
UPXI: 59% NAV Discount on Solana Treasury Play Ahead of Feb 10 Earnings
Upexi (UPXI) trades at a 59% discount to its Solana holdings alone, ignoring the consumer products business entirely. The company holds 2.07M SOL (worth ~$243M at current prices) against a $100M market cap. Heavy insider buying and a Feb 10 earnings catalyst create a time-sensitive opportunity with
Domestic Lithium Refining Buildout: SDSTW Advances Muskogee Refinery
Stardust Power (SDSTW) hired Bruce Czachor as General Counsel on January 26, 2026, citing progress on "advancing the Muskogee refinery toward construction." Czachor brings 35+ years legal experience, most recently as EVP/CLO at Piedmont Lithium (2018-present), where he led the cross-border merger wi
Structural Spread Compression - Agency mREIT ROE Regime Shift
AGNCO Q4 2025 earnings call revealed a structural regime shift in agency mREIT economics that materially changes the forward return profile. 1. Spread Compression into New Range Management explicitly stated they've broken out of the 120-160 bps spread range (held for ~3 years) into a new 90-130 bps
Standard BioTools: Cash-Rich Shell Trading at Net Cash After $350M SomaLogic Sale
Standard BioTools (LAB) closed the sale of SomaLogic to Illumina on January 30, 2026, receiving $350M upfront cash plus earnout/royalty rights. The company now holds ~$550M cash ($1.43/share) against a market cap of $538M—trading essentially at net cash while retaining an $80M revenue operating busi
BBU Value Realization Setup: Multiple 2026 Catalysts + Operational Execution
Brookfield Business Partners (BBU) presents a value realization setup with multiple near-term catalysts converging in 2026, validated operational execution at portfolio companies, and management actively buying back stock at what they describe as a "material discount to NAV." Brazilian IPO market "o
Nucor: 95% Data Center Steel Monopoly + FCF Inflection Meet 30-Year Low Imports
Nucor emerges from a deliberate investment trough into a multi-quarter earnings inflection driven by three structural tailwinds: (1) near-monopoly position in data center steel supply, (2) import displacement at 30-year lows creating 4M tons of domestic opportunity, and (3) FCF inflection as $3.4B g
LTL Market Inflection: Cross-Carrier Volume Recovery + ARCB Turnaround
ArcBest (ARCB) Q4 2025 earnings reveal structural improvements executed during a 4-year freight recession, now converging with industry-wide LTL market inflection. Key signals: 1. Asset-Light turnaround: $18M+ swing (FY2024 -$17M loss → FY2025 >$1M profit) 2. LTL volume acceleration: +2% YoY Q4 → +8
York Space Systems IPO Filing Discloses 52% Revenue Growth, EBITDA Loss Compressed 5x Toward Breakeven
York Space Systems closed its IPO on January 30, 2026 at $34 per share, raising $629M in gross proceeds. The S-1/A filing disclosed preliminary FY2025 results showing revenue of $384-388M versus $254M in FY2024, representing 52% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved from -$43M to appr
Standard BioTools Closes SomaLogic Sale, Creates $550M Cash Shell Trading at Net Cash
Standard BioTools completed the sale of its SomaLogic business to Illumina on January 30, 2026, receiving $350 million in upfront cash with up to $75 million in revenue-based earnouts through 2026. The transaction leaves the company with approximately $550 million in cash while retaining its mass cy
Ondas Holdings Completes Turnaround Re-Rating Despite Historical Distress Signals
Ondas Holdings (ONDS) has undergone a material re-rating in the past year, with shares rising 513% from $0.57 to $10.36, supported by structural improvements in cash position, analyst coverage expansion, and insider buying—despite historical going concern warnings and subsidiary cash burn. The compa
CINF raises dividend 8% ahead of earnings amid sector pricing pressure signals
Cincinnati Financial disclosed an 8% dividend increase from $0.87 to $0.94 per share quarterly in an 8-K filed January 30, 2026 — nine days before its February 9 earnings call. CEO Steven J. Johnston cited "industry-leading financial strength" and optimism about strategy execution. The increase mark
BMI Q4 2025 Earnings Call Reveals Near-Term Margin Pressure Despite 28% Software Growth
Badger Meter disclosed mixed signals in its Q4 2025 earnings call, with near-term headwinds offset by accelerating recurring revenue growth. Management guided H1 2026 growth to mirror H2 2025's 6% rate, below the company's 8%+ annual target, citing project pacing delays. Gross margins of 42.1% (high
Laird Superfood 8-K Reveals Distressed Restructuring Terms Ahead of Shareholder Vote
Laird Superfood filed an 8-K on January 30, 2026, amending its December 21, 2025 Investment Agreement with Nexus Capital and disclosing director departures ahead of the transaction closing. While the amendment itself is procedural—adjusting conversion pricing for potential "Additional Shares" to com
American Express Platinum Refresh Beats Expectations, Credit Quality Diverges from Peers
American Express disclosed strong execution on its September 2025 Platinum card refresh during its Q4 2025 earnings call, with retention unchanged at the new $695 price point despite a $100 annual fee increase. The filing reveals customer engagement metrics exceeding management expectations: travel
AGNC Investment Corp Reports Structural Spread Compression to 90-130 bps Range, Forward ROE Falls to 13-15%
AGNC Investment Corp disclosed a structural regime shift in its Q4 2025 earnings call, with net interest spreads compressing from a 120-160 basis point range maintained over the prior three years to a new 90-130 basis point regime. Management currently positions the portfolio at approximately 110 ba
Upexi Discloses 2.07M SOL Holdings Worth $243M Against $100M Market Cap
Upexi's January 30 8-K filing revealed quantitative Solana holdings for the first time: ">2M SOL currently held." Cross-referencing the company's Q1 FY2026 10-Q (filed November 12, 2025) confirms the company holds 2,066,827 SOL as of September 30, 2025, with a fair value of $400.8 million and a cost
NRG Closes $9.6B LS Power Acquisition, Doubles Natural Gas Fleet to 25 GW Amid Data Center Power Buildout
NRG Energy closed its $9.6 billion acquisition of 13 GW of natural gas generation capacity and the CPower demand response platform from LS Power on January 30, 2026, doubling the company's total generation fleet from 12 GW to 25 GW. The transaction consisted of $6.4 billion in cash, $3.7 billion in
ArcBest Q4 2025 Earnings Call Reveals Asset-Light Turnaround and LTL Volume Acceleration
ArcBest Corporation disclosed a significant turnaround in its Asset-Light segment during its Q4 2025 earnings call, reporting full-year 2025 profitability of over $1 million compared to a $17 million loss in 2024—an $18 million swing. The segment achieved breakeven operating income in Q4 while impro