Wealthfront (WLTH) IPO'd December 2025 at $14, now trading well below its offering price. The 10-K shows $171M Adjusted EBITDA at 47% margin against a $42M GAAP loss. Eight insiders bought $5.4M coordinated on March 13. Lockup expires by June 10.

What the filing says

FY2026 revenue $365M (+18% YoY): 74% cash management ($272M at 0.62% fee on $43.9B average), 25% investment advisory ($92M at 0.21% on $43.3B). Adjusted EBITDA $171M (47% margin, up from $143M). The $42M GAAP loss is entirely IPO accounting: $259.8M one-time SBC, $239M from dual-trigger RSU vesting that satisfied the performance condition at the liquidity event. Steady-state SBC tracks ≈$48M per the $105.5M unrecognized balance over 2.2 years — FY2027 should be GAAP profitable.

Balance sheet: $236M cash, zero debt, undrawn $250M Wells Fargo revolver. $100M buyback authorized March 9; $26M deployed at avg $8.58. WLTXX fee waiver expired March — 25 bps incremental on a portion of $45B cash management AUM.

The hard number: net deposits -62% YoY to $6.66B (from $17.7B).

What the market thinks

EV/Revenue 5.2x, EV/EBITDA 11x. RSI 67.8 after a +21% move following the March 13 Form 4 cluster. Options: IV calls 12.7% above puts, $15 calls 1,301 OI, $8 puts 1,917 OI. KLAR (closest fintech IPO analog, Sept 2025) ran -8% excess vs SPY at +90d post-lockup; fintech subset median ex-AFRM was -10.5%. Implied probability mix from options + buyback bid is roughly 25% bull / 50% base / 25% bear, EV near zero at current prices.

Why the gap exists

In the same Fed-cutting cycle, HOOD net deposits grew +35% YoY, SOFI +44%, SCHW BDA -8%. WLTH at -62% is 6-8x worse than the closest pure-sweep peer. Reading four filings to reach that comparison is undercovered work.

The GAAP loss continues to scare anyone who won't read the SBC footnote. The March 13 Form 4 cluster (CEO Fortunato $2.4M, CFO $686K, six directors) is buried in EDGAR and not referenced in the 10-K. A profitable business is read as a post-IPO loser while insiders with full deposit and lockup visibility buy the dip — those two reads cannot both be right.

Risks

1. Structural deposit-franchise loss. WLTH's standalone wealth platform may be permanently disadvantaged versus HOOD/SOFI integrated brokerage and Vanguard scale. The -62% vs +35-44% peer divergence is the strongest evidence.
2. Form 4 codes unverified. If March 13 transactions are A (grant) or F (tax withholding) rather than P (open purchase), the insider-conviction premise dissolves.
3. 42M+ dilutive shares at near-zero basis become liquid at lockup. KLAR analog implies -8 to -10% supply-driven tape.
4. Fed continues cutting. 74% of revenue is rate-sensitive cash management.

Catalysts

• Late May 2026 — Q1 FY2027 earnings release. Lockup trigger and Q1 deposit-trajectory readout.
• June 10, 2026 — Lockup latest expiry.
• June–August 2026 — Lockup-flush entry window. KLAR analog suggests $8.50–9 reachable.
• April 2027 — FY2027 10-K. GAAP profitability test.

What would change our mind

• Form 4 codes verify as A/F → kill insider-conviction premise.
• Q1 FY2027 deposits show further -30% to -50% YoY → structural loss confirmed.
• Insider sales post-lockup of March 13 shares → conviction was cosmetic.
• Buyback paused or terminated → management lost confidence.
• HOOD/SOFI deposit growth decelerates to WLTH-like rates → industry-wide cyclical, no relative edge to chase.

Evidence