Wilson Bank Holding Company. $5.9B single-bank holding company in Lebanon, Tennessee. 32 branches across the Nashville MSA. OTC-only stock, ≈$80/share, 12.8x earnings, 1.68x book. No analyst coverage. No institutional data. Trades via company transfer agent.

Record year. NIM expanded 39bps to 3.69%, net earnings +34% to $75.7M, ROA 1.34%, ROE 14.17%, efficiency ratio improved to 54.15%. EPS $6.26 vs $4.78 prior year. The entire earnings story is NIM — asset yields repriced higher (+17bps) while deposit costs fell (-24bps) as Fed cuts flowed through. Zero brokered deposits, entirely self-funded via core relationship deposits.

Fortress capital. CET1 14.3%, 780bps above well-capitalized minimum. Total capital 15.6%. Book value/share grew 18.6% to $47.89. AOCI drag improved $33M as rates stabilized. This bank could write off its entire nonaccrual portfolio and barely dent capital.

Nashville tailwind is real. Loans +6.3%, deposits +8.6%, driven by population inflows and corporate relocations (Oracle, Amazon, AllianceBernstein). Construction loans actually declined 4.4% — management tightening while the market still grows. That's discipline.

Now the one thing that matters.

NPA ratio spiked 5x in one year. From 0.10% to 0.49%. Nonaccruals went from zero (2023) to $4.8M (2024) to $26.7M (2025). That's a hockey stick. Concentrated in 2 large commercial/multi-family RE relationships and 2 construction/land/farmland relationships. Real estate = 99% of NPLs.

The detail that should make you pause: $17.5M of those nonaccrual loans carry zero ACL. Management's position is that collateral fully covers the exposure. Classified loans now sit at 116% of ACL, up from 97%. The CECL model stress-tests a CRE Price Index decline of -6.5% — management sees the risk, they're not ignoring it.

Actual losses remain trivial. NCO ratio 0.04%. These are recognized problems that haven't crystallized into write-offs. The question is whether they will.

Cross-ticker evidence says probably not. We checked CRE credit quality across the worldview — USB NPAs down 13%, BANC NCOs down 32%, NBTB commercial nonaccruals down 38%, CBU NPLs down 23%. The national trend is improving. SFST is the closest analog (similar-sized community bank with rising NPAs) but even there, CRE nonaccruals actually fell. WBHC's spike is the outlier, not the leading edge.

Commercial title volumes (STC/FAF/FNF all +35-38%) confirm CRE transaction activity is strong — collateral is liquid if WBHC needs to foreclose or sell OREO.

Our assessment: 60% episodic (2-4 bad borrowers, collateral holds, NPAs peak and decline), 40% systemic (Nashville late-cycle, construction exposure goes to zero). Prediction recorded: NPA ratio below 0.35% by Dec 2026, P=60%.

Factor decomposition — six factors, zero edge on any:

NIM at 3.69% is near-peak for this cycle. Expect reversion toward 3.40-3.50% if Fed cuts continue — the level is healthy but the direction is flat-to-down. Nashville MSA growth is a multi-decade secular trend but it's pure consensus. Capital is not a concern at any stress scenario. Deposit franchise is best-in-class for a community bank — no brokered, no FHLB, LTD 84%.

Insiders are a non-event. CEO bought 14 shares ($1,126) in February. One director (Bell) bought $100K in December. The rest is option exercises and DRIP. No selling either. Neutral.

MD&A added "retaliatory tariffs" and "deportations/labor shortages" to the risk factor language — responsive boilerplate, not structural concern. Auditor change from Maggart (37 years) to RubinBrown is voluntary professionalization as the bank crosses $5B assets. Clean transition, no disagreements.

Bottom line: Well-run Nashville community bank posting record earnings with one emerging CRE credit headwind that appears episodic based on cross-ticker evidence. Composite LR ≈1.6 on the "healthy bank" thesis. But there is no tradeable opportunity — OTC-only, illiquid, zero analyst coverage, zero edge on any factor. The filing's only ongoing value is as a Nashville CRE leading indicator data point.