Perpetua Resources owns the only fully permitted US antimony mine — Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho, 2.2M oz gold + 90M lb antimony over a 35-year life. The 10-Q filed May 11, 2026 surfaces two dated binaries inside a 16-day window: EXIM's $2.7B loan board vote on May 21, and a preliminary injunction hearing on May 28 with ruling expected by May 30. Stock at $31.10. The trade is the binary structure, not the asset.

What the filing says

The most material disclosures are subsequent events.

EXIM Bank includes the PPTA $2.7B Stibnite loan on the agenda for its May 21 board meeting, with "Final Approval" required. The 25-day congressional notification window (filed March 31) expired April 24 with no congressional objection — only an NGO public comment letter on regulations.gov. EXIM.gov independently published the agenda on May 7, four days before PPTA's filing — Transaction AP768324XX, Structured & Project Finance, Closed Session. PPTA is the sole critical-minerals item on the May 21 agenda; other items are Boeing aircraft and supply-chain finance.

On May 8, plaintiffs in the Federal Environmental Case filed a preliminary injunction motion targeting full-construction activities (stipulated early works carved out). Hearing set for May 28; plaintiffs requested ruling by May 30. Company language explicitly hedged: "cannot predict the outcome."

Construction is moving regardless. Buildings/equipment jumped $1.8M → $25.8M net in one quarter. Engineering ran $31.5M in Q1 2026 vs $5.3M Q1 2025. ATCO confirmed on its May 6 earnings call that the 1,052-person Stibnite camp is its "largest dollar value contract in the US today," with "approximately 1/3 of units already built." Cash $669.5M, no going concern, H1 2026 board-approved budget $328M.

What the market thinks

The stock ran $27.35 → $31.77 over May 5-13 (+13.7%). But against GDXJ (β=1.11), the idiosyncratic excess was only +2.6%. Most of the headline move was junior-gold sector beta. Trailing 120-day regression: GDXJ explains 64% of PPTA variance; total %Idio is 25%.

TRS NPV at $3,250 Au/$10 Sb is $3,457M; at $4,000 Au, $5,012M. All cases assume 100% equity financing. Adjusting for ≈$1.0-1.5B debt-financing uplift on $2.7B EXIM at gov rates: debt-converted equity NPV at current spot gold ($3,200/oz) is roughly $34-36/share. Solving implied P(clean clear) from current price (bull target $36, blended bear floor $26.50): market implied ≈46%. Our estimate: 65% (EXIM 85% × PI denied 77%, independence). Edge: 10-25pp on probability, central ≈19pp.

Why the gap exists

The May 21 agenda was public on EXIM.gov four days before PPTA's 10-Q. On that day PPTA traded -4.3% relative to GDXJ — sector-adjusted, the market did not price the agenda publication as a binary upgrade. Likely profit-taking by holders who entered earlier in the EXIM-derisking cycle.

The PI motion generated negative sentiment, but the >85% denial base rate at structurally similar critical-mineral projects under APA challenges (Resolution Copper March 2026 — SCOTUS denied stay; Thacker Pass 2023 — Judge Du + 9th Cir; Twin Metals April 2026 — legislatively resolved) is not synthesized in the price. Courts defer to agency RODs; public interest prong heavily favors critical minerals under current administration.

EXIM is also running a systematic critical-minerals deployment campaign — $10B Project Vault, $1.25B Reko Diq, $14.8B total LOIs. PPTA isn't an outlier on that agenda; it's the front of the queue.

Forward EV (16-day window from $31.10)

Probability-weighted: +7.7% over 16 days, single-trade Sharpe 0.56.

Risks (ranked)

1. PI granted (≈23%) — full-construction injunction delays FID to H1 2027 even with EXIM approved.
2. EXIM defer (≈15%) — pushes vote to next board cycle (≈3 months).
3. Options-implied P unverified — if 30d IV-extracted P(clean) ≥ 60%, edge collapses below 5pp. Have not pulled the chain.
4. Bear floor mis-specified — if true downside is $24 not $26.50, edge compresses below 10pp.
5. Joint correlation — EXIM and PI outcomes may both proxy regime favorability; joint clean P could be 0.55-0.60.
6. Tariff capex overrun — $2,576M capex explicitly excludes tariff impacts; 25% steel tariff in force.
7. Antimony offtake unsigned — RFP open since December 2025; explicit EXIM condition precedent. Spot has faded to ≈$22-38/kg from June 2025 $59 peak.
8. Cost overrun facility unresolved — explicit EXIM condition precedent.

Catalysts

• May 21, 2026 — EXIM board vote
• May 28, 2026 — PI hearing
• May 30, 2026 — PI ruling deadline (plaintiff-requested)
• Q2 2026 — second cyanidation permit issuance anticipated
• H2 2026 — Final Investment Decision (FID), per company language
• H2 2026 — EXIM loan documentation closing target
• November 10, 2026 — China rare earth export control suspension expires (sector backdrop)

What would change our mind

• Options chain reveals IV-implied P(clean) ≥ 60% — edge collapses, trade is dead
• Antimony offtake signed below $10/lb base case — NPV compression, sentiment break
• Cost overrun facility resolved with dilutive terms (equity-linked instruments at depressed prices) — overhang
• EXIM agenda removal before May 21 — procedural slip, momentum break
• PI granted on May 30 — thesis re-rates to H1 2027 FID, exit
• Gold spot below $3,000/oz — intrinsic compresses, binary edge irrelevant on a sector unwind

Evidence

LR signal: 1.4 — bullish, market under-pricing the binary structure on a sector-adjusted basis, but precision of edge depends on options-implied probability extraction that has not yet been performed. Direction is the actionable claim; magnitude carries less information than the conviction implies.