InterDigital (IDCC) is a wireless and video standard-essential patent licensor — Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Sony, LG TV under license through 2030. The Q1 2026 10-Q (filed 2026-04-30) revised contracted future revenue from $1.77B to $1.97B in a single quarter on six new agreements that didn't exist when FY2026 guidance was set. The stock fell 32% from $412 to $279 in the 60 days into the print.

What the filing says

Q1 2026 revenue was $205.4M against guidance of $194-200M. CE/IoT/Auto revenue rose 212% YoY to $81.9M as Sony's global all-device agreement (cellular + Wi-Fi + video, all end-user devices) and LG Electronics' TV/monitor agreement (Madison joint program) came online. Six new licenses were signed in Q1 alone — Sony, LG TV, a five-year Xiaomi renewal, Buffalo Americas, Metz, plus an unnamed sixth. LG is now the largest single customer at 29% of Q1 revenue, ahead of Apple (16%) and Samsung (16%).

Contracted future revenue was disclosed at $1.97B, up from $1.77B at year-end. The schedule shows $393M remaining in 2026, $513M in 2027, $417M in 2028, $357M in 2029, $221M in 2030, $74M thereafter. That figure includes a conservative estimate for the pending Lenovo ICC arbitration. Operating expenses ran $123.2M (+57% YoY) on revenue share costs and IP enforcement, both expected to remain elevated through 2026. Cash and short-term investments stood at $1.09B; the dividend was raised 17% to $0.70.

What the market thinks

The stock trades at $279 against a sell-side mean target of $462 (+65%) and 100% buy ratings. Forward P/E is 24.9x on the FY2026 midpoint guidance of $725M (revenue range $675-775M, a step-down from FY2025's $834M because of Samsung catch-up not repeating). Tape positioning is bearish — RSI 21, ≈$50 below the 50- and 200-day averages — while options positioning is mildly bullish (P/C 0.42, call IV above put IV). The split between sell-side fundamentals optimism and tape momentum bearishness is itself the dislocation.

The locked $1.97B contracted revenue is 27% of the $7.2B market cap, up from ≈21% at year-end. The 2027 contracted alone ($513M) exceeds anything Cerence or Acacia delivered in their respective FY2025s.

Why the gap exists

FY2026 is genuinely a step-down year. Samsung's $118M Q3 2025 catch-up does not repeat. Guidance is below the prior-year print. Headline momentum funds rotated off that narrative.

But three pieces of new information arrived after the guidance was set:

The Sony global all-device agreement is the deepest single customer commitment in the cohort and was not in any Street model. The LG TV agreement adds the world's largest TV maker to the Madison program. The Xiaomi five-year renewal locks the third-largest smartphone OEM through 2030.

The cohort bifurcation requires cross-ticker work that sell-side rarely synthesizes. Cerence reported zero IP licensing revenue in calendar Q1 2026 — the Samsung windfall was non-recurring. Acacia's IP revenue collapsed 99% YoY ($0.7M vs $69.9M). Adeia's headline +20% masks an $18M decline in recurring Pay-TV revenue, papered over with three lumpy semi/media deals signed in a single quarter; meanwhile, DIRECTV and DISH have filed coordinated declaratory judgment counter-attacks against Adeia's patent enforcement. Dolby's Q2 fiscal 2026 was steady but slow at +8%. Only IDCC has the durable expansion path.

The Samsung ICC challenge filed December 2025 is binary on $131M annual recurring (≈17% of FY2026 revenue). The 32% drawdown roughly matches a full overturn outcome, implying the tape is pricing this binary at 25-35% probability against a historical ICC reversal base rate of 10-15%.

Risks (ranked by impact)

1. Samsung ICC challenge — binary on $131M/yr; resolution Q1-Q4 2027; base rate 10-15% overturn but the magnitude is large.
2. Coordinated streaming-defendant DJ pattern — Dolby v. IDCC (March 2026), DIRECTV v. ADEA (Dec 2025), DISH v. ADEA (April 2026), all NDCA/C.D. Cal. Procedural drag is real; substantive risk is contained by DOJ's three pro-patent-holder Statements of Interest in 2026 (Collision/Samsung, Samsung/Netlist, Disney/IDCC).
3. US Disney claim construction — March 2026 ruling held some patents indefinite. Feb 2027 US trial is the largest damages case.
4. 2027 Notes maturity — $380M principal due June 2027, conversion price $77.49 vs stock $279, deeply ITM. $80M already cash-converted Q1; remaining could pressure cash or shares.
5. Operating expense persistence — IP enforcement running ≈2.5x prior-year pace; not a thesis breaker but a margin overhang.

Catalysts (with dates)

• Within ≈5 days: CEVA Q1 2026 10-Q. Tests sectoral vs idio interpretation of the cohort bifurcation. Decelerating CEVA confirms IDCC share-capture; accelerating CEVA reopens sectoral case.
• May 2026: UPC Mannheim hearing on Disney patents.
• June-July 2026: UPC Dusseldorf hearing.
• July 2026: TCL Brazil hearing.
• Late July 2026: IDCC Q2 2026 10-Q. Tests whether contracted revenue holds at or above $1.97B.
• Q3-Q4 2026: Court ruling on IDCC's motion to dismiss the Dolby DJ.
• Year-end 2026: Lenovo ICC hearing.
• February 2027: Disney US trial (largest damages case).
• Q1-Q4 2027: Samsung ICC ruling.

What would change our mind

• CEVA Q1 print shows Wi-Fi connectivity royalties up 50%+ YoY → cohort accelerating together, IDCC's premium compresses.
• IDCC Q2 contracted revenue prints below $1.97B → Q1 was peak, CE expansion decelerating.
• Samsung ICC procedural ruling indicates tribunal accepting Samsung's primary arguments → 10% overturn probability is too low.
• Court denies IDCC's Dolby DJ motion to dismiss on substantive grounds → DJ doctrine gains traction; Disney US trial more vulnerable.
• A new major streamer (Netflix, Apple TV+, Roku) files a similar DJ → coordinated industry resistance escalates from procedural to structural.
• US Disney claim construction expanded against IDCC on additional asserted patents → the largest damages case weakens.

Evidence