Setup

Comstock Resources is a Haynesville/Bossier natural gas E&P controlled ≈80% by Jerry Jones. The stock sits at a 52-week low after a 22% one-month selloff. Sell-side ratings (Citi $19, UBS Sell $16-18, Piper Underweight $9) all pre-date NextEra Energy's April 23 Q1 earnings call, on which CEO John Ketchum publicly named Comstock as the designated gas supplier for a 5.2 GW Anderson County, TX power hub.

What the filings say

NextEra Energy Q1 2026 earnings call (April 23, 2026), CEO John Ketchum, verbatim: "Anderson County Texas strategically located one partners Comstock Resources, so bountiful gas supply available region, extremely attractive." Same call: "definitive agreements, looking, next two-three-month period on both projects" — a June-July 2026 target.

The Anderson County hub is embedded in a US Department of Commerce site selection (March 19, 2026 fact sheet) and the US-Japan trade deal ($550B Japan investment commitment). With the second site (South Mon, ≈4.3 GW), NextEra Energy Resources capex commitment is ≈$33B for ≈9.5 GW of gas-fired generation — roughly 45% of the trade deal's energy package.

CRK Q1 2026 earnings call (May 6, 2026) corroborated. President Roland Burns: "NextEra was clear in their earnings call, gas coming from Comstock, not something to debate." Scale at full ramp ≈1 Bcf/d gas supply by 2031. Pricing structure not yet disclosed; Burns: "Nobody has the answer that's disclosable now."

The same call clarified the Pinnacle Gas Services $440M Quantum redemption: PGS-level equity raise, no recourse to upstream revolver. Burns: "no recourse between the two." New common equity partner expected at the Q2 call (~early August). This structurally removes the most-feared near-term balance-sheet pressure point.

Black Stone Minerals (BSM) Q1 2026 10-Q independently named Comstock Western Haynesville activity in Anderson County — third-party royalty-owner confirmation.

What the market thinks

Aug 21 $18 calls trade at $0.70, IV 64%, delta 0.30 — implied probability of stock clearing $18 by Aug 21 is roughly 25-30%. Jan 2027 $20 calls at OI 26,401 imply similar probability (≈30-35%) over a longer window. Vol surface is consistent across strikes.

Behind-the-meter gas/nuclear hyperscaler deals from 2024-2026 (n=8 announced projects) show 75% conversion to binding contracts within 12 months. Government-backed deals (Three Mile Island/Microsoft, Susquehanna/AWS) converted at 100% within 3 months. Anderson County has bipartisan backing and a US government counterparty.

Short interest 25.3% of float, 9.2 days to cover. Stock at 52-week low, RSI ≈30.

Why the gap exists

Multi-source primary corroboration converged in the two-week window between NextEra's April 23 call and Comstock's May 6 call. That's faster than sell-side update cycles (typically 30-60 days post-print). The Q1 10-Q (filed simultaneously with the CRK call) is silent on NextEra by name, consistent with disclosure norms — 10-Qs require binding contracts; calls allow forward partnership commentary. Investors who read 10-Qs in isolation got a false negative.

Risks (ranked)

1. Pricing structure undisclosed. Fixed-price ($3.50-4.50/Mcf) vs power-indexed vs hybrid implies $2.40-15/share NPV range. The single largest valuation lever, and unknown.
2. Stargate Abilene precedent. 1 of 8 cohort deals de-scoped (4.5 GW → 1.2 GW). Tail risk on Anderson County scope cut.
3. Factor contamination. CRK has 57.2% idiosyncratic variance vs the 75% target (FCG β=1.54). Naked equity is partly a leveraged gas commodity bet.
4. 2026 hedge book caps near-term upside. 63% hedged at $3.51 floor / $4.35 ceiling. 2027 hedges added during Q1 to ≈98% coverage at $3.50/$4.44 collars.
5. Q1 production miss 10-13%. Q2 guide +13-15% to 1.24-1.26 Bcf/d — operational credibility taxed.
6. Pinnacle equity raise execution. Burns says "nearing the end" but private deals slip.
7. Henry Hub strip break. If gas curve breaks $2.50 sustained, factor drag overwhelms catalyst.

Catalysts

What would change our mind

• NEE 8-K naming an alternative supplier OR US DOC reshuffling Anderson County
• Item 1.01 slipping past Sep 30, 2026 with no NEE Q2 call timeline reaffirmation
• Pinnacle equity raise stalling, forcing >$200M upstream revolver draw
• Q2 production printing below 1.18 Bcf/d (low-end miss = operational thesis broken)
• Henry Hub strip breaking $2.50 sustained
• Jerry Jones registering a secondary offering (controlling-shareholder distribution kills the float dynamic)

Evidence